Public Outrage Predictive Modelling

Predict social riskbefore it escalates to outrage.

POPM identifies the project decisions capable of creating social risk on major infrastructure projects — and helps you test what you could change to reduce it.

See POPM demonstrated Watch how to complete a POPM assessment

Project decisions create the risk.Real-world conditions shape how it plays out.

Data Centre POPM assessment journey

Outrage probability · illustrativeInitial assessment

CalmConcernMobilisingOutrage

Download the Quick Reference Guide (PDF) Download How POPM Works (PDF)

A$20 billion+

Infrastructure projects delayed, cancelled or mothballed due to community opposition in the decade preceding 2019.

Source: Infrastructure Australia, National Community Engagement for Infrastructure Forum, 22 August 2019, citing the 2019 Australian Infrastructure Audit. View source →

US$130 billion

US data centre projects blocked or delayed in the first three months of 2026 — nearly matching the total for all of 2025.

Source: Data Center Watch, Q1 2026 Report. Research period: January–March 2026. View source →

Projects aren’t delivered in a vacuum.

Social risk is shaped by the project’s decisions and the conditions in the community where it will be built.

Water abundant

A data centre needs significant water. There is sufficient capacity and no competing users.

Lower social sensitivity.

Water constrained

The same project. The same water demand. But drought, restrictions and competing users.

Higher social sensitivity.

The project’s demand hasn’t changed… but the circumstances have.

What if you didn’t have to wait for signs of community opposition to understand its causes?

How POPM works

Three questions to better inform project decisions

01 Project-created social risk What social risk are today’s project decisions capable of creating? POPM assesses the project decisions and characteristics capable of creating risk. Together, these assessments establish a project’s Inherent Social Risk — ISR.

02 Real-world influences How might real-world conditions change that risk? POPM considers the relevant influences surrounding the project to establish the project’s Adjusted Social Risk — ASR.

03 Financial exposure and mitigation What can we change now to prevent or reduce risk — and what could it cost if we don’t? POPM estimates Indicative Financial Exposure and lets you test what you could change to reduce social risk.

Reducing risk and covering its potential cost are different decisions. Changing the project can reduce social risk. Increasing the contingency available can help cover its potential financial exposure. POPM helps you examine both.

AI assists the assessment. You can review the evidence, reasoning and findings before accepting the results.

Download the Quick Reference Guide (PDF) Download How POPM Works (PDF)

See what’s driving the risk.

Explore your assessment, understand the findings and test what different project decisions could change.

Illustrative POPM assessment dashboard showing Inherent Social Risk, Adjusted Social Risk, overall project risk and Project Factor contribution

Illustrative project

Understand your risk position

See the risk created by project decisions, how real-world conditions change it and which Project Factors contribute most to the assessed risk.

Illustrative POPM Financial Impacts screen comparing indicative financial exposure with available contingency

Illustrative project

Put the risk in financial context

Compare Indicative Financial Exposure with the contingency available for social risk.

Illustrative comparison

Test what you could change

Compare different changes to the project and see how they could affect social risk and financial exposure.

Look beyond the score. Review the evidence and reasoning behind an assessment. Ask questions, add information and accept, edit or reject AI-generated findings.

Watch how to complete a POPM assessment

Work with POPM

Different projects need different kinds of support.

Whether you want an assessment, support to use POPM on your project or help developing your own capability as a practitioner, we can discuss an approach that suits your needs.

People around a meeting table with POPM displayed on a shared screen and individual devices. — Illustrative image.

Have a project assessed

Explore the social risk on a project you’re developing, advising on or independently reviewing. Understand what’s driving it and what could change it.

Use POPM as your project evolves

Explore how POPM could support ongoing project decisions, with assessments updated as the project, evidence or surrounding conditions change.

Learn to apply POPM

Let’s discuss what would work for you. Discuss your needs

What people have found useful

Early feedback from POPM users

“…the process relatively pain-free and very productive.”

“We recently trialled POPM on a regional project in WA that has some very complex stakeholder issues and found the process relatively pain-free and very productive. Understanding the project can be reassessed in the future to track community outrage over time and that we have an option to undertake a mitigation assessment to evaluate the change in rating is fantastic news! Overall, I found this to be a very worthwhile piece of work.”

Gary Manning Director Project Development Main Roads Western Australia

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Meet POPM’s creator

Yolanda Vos

Perception Strategist

Yolanda developed POPM from more than 20 years’ experience in communications and engagement on major infrastructure projects.

That experience led her to question why some projects attracted substantial community opposition while similar projects progressed with relatively little social conflict. What was it about the project itself that could create social risk — and could that risk be identified before opposition appeared?

POPM brings that practical understanding together with research and documented project evidence. AI helps apply the methodology consistently, making it easier to compare assessments across projects and as a project evolves. It does much of the analytical work, while people review the findings, exercise their judgement and decide what to do with the information.

A$50 billion+ Major infrastructure projects on which Yolanda has delivered communications and engagement services.

More about Yolanda

Explore POPM Guides and Insights

Guides, practical demonstrations and research to help you understand the approach.

Start here POPM Quick Reference Guide The four-page overview of where social risk comes from, how real-world conditions change it and what you can do about it. Download the Quick Reference Guide (PDF) → Full guide How POPM Works The full plain-English guide to the methodology, assessment process and mitigation testing. Download How POPM Works (PDF) → ▶ Instructional video See how to complete a POPM assessment in the application. Watch how to complete a POPM assessment →

Research and insights

Strategic Insight Paper Power Struggle Counting the cost of public outrage in the energy transition Download Full Report (PDF) → Strategic Insight Paper Risky Business Managing social risk in the era of infrastructure outrage Download Full Report (PDF) →

Data Centre POPM

POPM’s latest innovation, developed specifically for data centre projects.

POPM has been trialled and used on a range of major infrastructure projects. Its latest application focuses on the distinctive characteristics of data centres and the project decisions capable of creating social risk.

Drawing on international research and documented case studies, Data Centre POPM examines the factors most significant to these projects and the real-world conditions that shape their social risk.

The application brings assessment findings, financial exposure and mitigation testing together, helping users understand the risk and explore what different project decisions could change.

Illustrative POPM projects dashboard listing eight fictional data centre projects with risk rating, ISR, ASR and financial position — See assessed risk positions across multiple projects. Example projects.

See Data Centre POPM demonstrated

See what POPM could tell you.

We’re inviting a small number of project teams, advisers and other infrastructure participants to see POPM in action and help test it on real projects.

SEE IT See POPM demonstrated using a real project.

TEST IT Explore what POPM could tell you about a project of your own.

TEST US Provide a completed project as a case study and see what POPM identifies from the information available at the time.

You know what happened. Let’s see what POPM would have predicted.

Register your interest There’s no commitment. Choose a demonstration, testing POPM, contributing a case study or simply finding out more.

Prefer a conversation?

1300 191 925